MEMO: Bernie Is Democrats' Strongest Candidate Against Trump

To: Interested Parties

From: Bernie 2020

RE: Data Show Bernie Is Best Positioned To Defeat Trump

After a year of campaigning and victories in the first three Democratic Party elections, Bernie Sanders has solidified his position as – by far – the candidate who is best positioned to defeat Donald Trump in the general election. In addition to Bernie 2020 having the strongest grassroots fundraising and volunteer organization, a wave of empirical data shows that Bernie is the strongest Democratic candidate against Trump and among key demographic groups that often swing elections in battleground areas up and down the ballot. 

Summarizing much of this data in a New York Times analysis, Center for American Progress senior fellow Steve Phillips wrote: “Not only does most of the available empirical evidence show Mr. Sanders defeating President Trump in the national popular vote and in the critical Midwestern states that tipped the Electoral College in 2016, but his specific electoral strengths align with changes in the composition of the country’s population in ways that could actually make him a formidable foe for the president.”

You can click here to read an in-depth Washington Post review of Sanders’ electability case. What follows is a summary of the key data. 

BERNIE IS STRONGEST CANDIDATE IN A MATCHUP WITH TRUMP

  • Bernie has led Trump in 54 of 59 polls and has larger margin than Biden in 7 of 13 recent surveys: Since Bernie announced his campaign for president in early 2019, he has led Trump in 54 out of 59 surveys tracked by Real Clear Politics. Bernie has posted a larger margin against Trump than Joe Biden in 7 out of 13 recent national polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight.

  • Bernie is a strong candidate against Trump in industrial battleground states: A new Wisconsin State Journal poll finds Bernie leading in the Democratic primaries and in the general election in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — the three previously Democratic states that helped deliver the election to Donald Trump. The most recent Muhlenberg College poll and Marquette University poll show that Bernie is the only candidate leading Trump in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, respectively. 

  • Bernie is the strongest candidate versus Trump on character and values: USA Today reports that in its most recent poll, “40% said they admired Sanders’ character, well above the 26% who said they admired Trump” - and well above other Democratic candidates. The same survey found Sanders with the largest number of voters saying he “shares my values” - above Trump and all other candidates. 

BERNIE IS A PARTICULARLY STRONG CANDIDATE AMONG INDEPENDENTS & OTHER SWING VOTERS

  • Bernie is strong against Trump among independent voters: Polls from Reuters/Ipsos and Survey USA show Bernie with double-digit leads against Trump among independents. In Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada - all swing states - entrance/exit polls showed Bernie winning independent voters. 

  • Bernie is strong among suburban women: USA Today reports that in its most recent poll, “Suburban women, a key voting block that helped Democrats flip the House of Representatives in 2018, favored Sanders, with 38% saying they admired his character and 47% agreeing that he ‘cares about people like me.’” Iowa entrance polls also showed Bernie winning among suburban voters. 

  • Bernie is the strongest candidate among Latinos, putting key states in play: The latest Fox News poll shows Bernie with a 27-point lead against Trump among Latino voters -- the largest margin of any candidate. UCLA researchers estimated Sanders won 70 percent of Nevada’s Latino vote, and the recent PPIC poll shows him winning 53 percent of the Latino vote in California. This strength with Latinos is significant in battleground states such as Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and Texas.

  • Bernie is the strongest candidate among working class voters: In the primary, Bernie has led among working-class voters, and the most recent poll from Survey USA shows him with the largest margin against Trump among voters making $40,000 or less. In New Hampshire, exit polls showed Bernie winning among voters making $100,000 or less, and a voting analysis by INET found that “lower income towns in New Hampshire voted heavily for Sanders.” Trump’s campaign manager Brad Parscale recently identified this as a potential problem for Republicans in a general election against Bernie. “I think he's tough in places where people are making $12 an hour," Parscale said of Bernie.

  • Bernie is the strongest candidate among young people: Bernie has big leads among young people in the Democratic primary -- and that trend is reflected in general election polls as well. In the latest Quinnipiac University survey, Bernie has a 33-point lead against Trump among voters aged 18-34 -- by far the largest lead among that group of any Democratic candidate.

ICYMI: Bernie Co-Chair Contrasts Sanders & Biden/Bloomberg On Social Security

Bernie 2020 national co-chair Nina Turner published a new CNBC oped reviewing Joe Biden and Mike Bloomberg’s efforts to cut Social Security — the latter of which was explored in a new CNN report. Turner compares Biden and Bloomberg’s record with Bernie’s successful work blocking those cuts.

Turner notes that Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell has reportedly said he wants to work with the next Democratic president to cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Here is an excerpt:

Trump, however, is not the only reason we should be concerned about the future of Social Security: Bloomberg News’ congressional correspondent recently reported that Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell “told me he hopes to work with the next Democratic president to trim Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid.”

All of this underscores an important reality: to both defeat Trump in this election and strengthen Social Security, we must choose Bernie Sanders as our Democratic nominee, because he has an unwavering record fighting against Social Security cuts -- and fighting for an expansion of the program.

Unfortunately, not every candidate in this race has such a track record.

Click here to read the entire oped.

Bern after reading,

Sirota

BERN NOTICE: Pelosi & Senate Dems Boost Bernie's Electability Argument

Bern Notice is a production of the Bernie 2020 campaign. Please forward this on to your friends and tell them to subscribe. The views expressed here are solely of the bylined author.

Polls show Bernie is the strongest general election candidate against Donald Trump, and show him winning key battleground states and demographics that often swing national elections. And now, more and more congressional Democrats are rightly laughing off last-minute attempts to erase this data and pretend Bernie would harm down-ballot Democrats in a general election.

WHAT DEMOCRATS ARE SAYING

• WASHPOST — PELOSI SAYS DEMS WILL WIN HOUSE WITH SANDERS: The Washington Post reports that “House Speaker Nancy Pelosi pushed back on a warning from Buttigieg during Tuesday night’s debate that making Sanders the Democratic nominee could lead to a Republican takeover of the House…Asked about the prospect of McCarthy taking the gavel if Sanders is on top of the Democratic ticket, Pelosi responded, ‘I think whoever our nominee is, we will enthusiastically embrace, and we will win the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives.’”

• POLITICO — “SENATE DEMS AREN’T FREAKING OUT ABOUT BERNIE”: Politico reports that “Sanders is the clear frontrunner as the party heads into a potentially decisive March stretch for the Democratic primary. And that’s OK with many Senate Democrats.”

• CNN — SEN. MURPHY LAUDS “STRENGTH” OF BERNIE’S CANDIDACY: Connecticut Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy told CNN: “Bernie’s base of support — the enthusiasm behind him — I think speaks to the strength of his candidacy both in the primary but as a general election candidate as well.”

POLLING DATA SHOWS BERNIE’S STRENGTH

• BERNIE IS PARTICULARLY STRONG AMONG SWING VOTERS: Reuters’ poll shows Bernie doing — by far — the best against Trump among independent swing voters. A recent USA Today/Ipsos poll found that “suburban women, a key voting block that helped Democrats flip the House of Representatives in 2018, also favored Sanders.” Summarizing the data, pollster Peter Hart told NBC News: "There is one clear and inescapable set of results: Bernie Sanders is the definitive front-runner, and the current numbers do not represent his ceiling, but instead his base with room to grow.”

BERNIE IS STRONGEST VERSUS TRUMP IN BATTLEGROUND POLL: A new Wisconsin State Journal poll finds Bernie leading in the Democratic primaries and in the general election in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — the three previously Democratic states that helped deliver the election to Donald Trump. Bernie is leading Trump by the largest margins of any Democratic candidate in Michigan (+7) and Pennsylvania (+2), and also gets the largest amount of total support in Wisconsin (46%).

• BERNIE IS THE ONLY DEM AHEAD OF TRUMP IN PENNSYLVANIA: The Allentown Morning Call reports that “A new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows Trump doing better against potential Democratic rivals than he did in a similar poll three months earlier…Only Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders maintained a slight lead over the president in hypothetical matchups.”

• BERNIE IS THE STRONGEST AGAINST TRUMP IN VIRGINIA: A new Roanoke College poll shows Bernie leading Trump by nine points in the swing state of Virginia — the largest margin of any Democratic candidate.

• BERNIE IS THE STRONGEST AGAINST TRUMP IN FLORIDA: A recent Florida Atlantic University poll found Bernie leading Trump in Florida by the widest margin of any Democratic candidate.

• BERNIE IS STRONGEST AGAINST TRUMP IN TEXAS: Vanity Fair reports “A Texas Lyceum poll just this week showed Sanders performing better against Trump in Texas than any Democrat, losing by just three points. That’s on top of a raft of polls showing Sanders beating Trump back those precious Upper Midwest states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. These polls aren’t totally hypothetical, either: Sanders boasts near universal Name ID. Most voters know who Sanders is and what he stands for—and they’re still choosing him.”

Bern after reading,

Sirota

P.S. Check out this CBS story reporting that “Republican Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina believes that among the field of Democratic presidential hopefuls, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is the one who poses the ‘biggest threat’ to President Trump in November.”

ICYMI: WashPost On Bernie's Electability

Bern Notice is a production of the Bernie 2020 campaign. Please forward this on to your friends and tell them to subscribe. The views expressed here are solely of the bylined author.

Heading into the final debate before Super Tuesday, there has been a lot of discussion about “electability” in the general election. Here are three sets of links you should check out:

1. Click here for a new must-read Washington Post interview with Bernie’s pollster Ben Tulchin about the state of the race. Tulchin notes “Bernie does several points better than any other Democrat against Trump among 18-to-34 year-olds, which is a significant percentage of the electorate. Bernie has consistently done better among independents than any other Democrat tested, particularly younger independents.” He also reviews data on specific issues like Medicare for All.

2. Click here, here and here for some important polling data on Bernie’s coalition, his status in the polls in battleground states, and his standing among swing voters. Bottom line: the survey data show Bernie has built a broad, multiracial, multigenerational coalition and is the strongest general-election candidate against Trump.

3. Click here to watch a short segment from MSNBC’s Chris Hayes reviewing some of the general election data. As he notes: “If you are freaking out because he is so obviously an electoral disaster, I’m here to tell you its just not what the information we have now suggests.”

Bern after reading,

Sirota

BREAKING: Lancet Study Author Says Sanders' Financing Plan Fully Covers Cost of Medicare for All

Author of landmark report declares "The options laid out by Sen. Sanders last night will more than cover" the cost of Medicare for All

Bern Notice is a production of the Bernie 2020 campaign. Please forward this on to your friends and tell them to subscribe. The views expressed here are solely of the bylined author.

The author of a landmark health care study by Yale University researchers says Bernie’s financing plan fully pays for his Medicare for All initiative.

"The options laid out by Sen. Sanders last night will more than cover" the cost of Medicare for All, said Yale University’s Alison Galvani, one of the nation’s leading experts on health care financing, and the co-author of a comprehensive report published in The Lancet analyzing the prospect of single-payer health care in the United States.

Galvani touted the details of Sanders’ financing plan released last night at a CNN town hall.

The Washington Post reports that the Lancet study shows “national single-payer health-care system would save tens of thousands of lives each year — and hundreds of billions of dollars.” In all, the Post notes that the study shows a “single-payer health-care system would save more than 68,000 lives and $450 billion a year.”

The Lancet study follows a separate report from University of California researchers finding “a high degree of analytic consensus for the fiscal feasibility of a single-payer approach in the U.S.”

Specifically, the report reviewed single-payer cost analyses from groups “across the political spectrum” and found that “there is near-consensus in these analyses that single-payer would reduce health expenditures while providing high-quality insurance to all US residents.” The report notes that “the largest savings were predicted to come from simplified billing and lower drug costs.”

Bern after reading,

Sirota

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